Chinese steelmakers are poised to maintain high export volumes in 2025, driven by overcapacity and weak domestic demand, which could exacerbate existing trade tensions. Key points include:
Export Growth: China is on track to export over 100 million metric tons of steel this year, the highest since 2016, with a 21.2% increase in exports during the first three quarters.
Future Projections: Analysts forecast that exports will remain around 90 to 100 million tons in 2025, fueled by rising global demand and the competitive pricing of Chinese steel.
Major Players: Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., a leading steelmaker, reported a 46.6% increase in exports in 2023 and aims to further boost shipments in the coming years.
Trade Complaints: The surge in exports has led to complaints from countries such as Turkey and Indonesia, resulting in anti-dumping duties against Chinese steel. In 2023, there were 28 trade remedy cases against Chinese steel products.
Geopolitical Factors: The World Steel Association predicts a 1.2% rebound in global steel demand in 2025, which could benefit Chinese exports despite ongoing trade frictions.
Domestic Market Weakness: China’s steel production has declined by 3.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year, indicating weak domestic consumption, particularly in the property sector.
Regulatory Challenges: Potential anti-dumping investigations, particularly from Vietnam, pose risks to China’s export momentum. Additionally, a crackdown on value-added tax evasion in steel exports could impact overall export volumes.
China’s steel exports remain crucial for managing domestic overproduction, but the increasing trade tensions may lead to a more fragmented export market.