The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its oil demand forecasts downward for both the U.S. and global markets for 2025, citing weakening economic activity in China and North America.
Key points include:
Global oil demand is now expected to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 104.3 million bpd in 2025, which is 300,000 bpd lower than previous forecasts.
U.S. oil demand is projected to rise to 20.5 million bpd next year, down from an earlier estimate of 20.6 million bpd.
The EIA’s adjustments reflect declining imports and refinery operations in China, the world’s largest crude buyer.
The agency also noted concerns over slowing industrial production and manufacturing growth in the U.S. and Canada.
For 2024, the EIA maintains its forecast for U.S. demand at 20.3 million bpd and expects global demand growth at 940,000 bpd.
U.S. oil production forecasts have also been lowered, with expected output for 2025 now averaging 13.54 million bpd, down from 13.67 million bpd.
Additionally, the EIA has adjusted its price forecasts, now expecting U.S. crude to average $76.91 per barrel in 2024 and Brent prices to average $80.89 per barrel this year.