Goldman Sachs has projected that Brent crude prices could rise by $10-$20 per barrel in 2025 due to potential disruptions in Iranian oil production. This comes in the wake of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, following a missile attack by Iran and Israel’s assassination of a Hezbollah leader.
The bank’s analysis suggests that if there were a significant disruption of two million barrels per day to Iranian supply for six months, Brent prices could temporarily peak at around $90 per barrel. Without OPEC’s rapid offset of the shortfall, prices could reach the mid-$90s. Conversely, if a persistent disruption of one million barrels per day occurs, Brent could peak in the mid-$80s, assuming a gradual OPEC response.
Despite these potential peaks, Goldman Sachs expects Brent to generally trade within the $70-$85 range, forecasting an average price of $77 per barrel for Q4 2024 and $76 per barrel for 2025, barring any major supply disruptions.