In its 2024 World Oil Outlook, OPEC has raised its projections for global oil demand for the medium and long term, attributing this growth to rising populations and economic development in India, Africa, and the Middle East. The organization anticipates a slower transition to electric vehicles and cleaner fuels than previously expected.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais highlighted that while other forecasters, such as BP and the International Energy Agency, predict oil demand to peak within this decade, OPEC sees a longer period of rising consumption. He stated, “Future energy demand is found in the developing world due to increasing populations, middle class, and urbanization.”
According to the report, OPEC expects world oil demand to reach 118.9 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2045, an increase of 2.9 million bpd from last year’s estimates. The forecast extends to 2050, predicting demand to hit 120.1 million bpd, significantly higher than other industry forecasts. For instance, BP projects that oil use will peak in 2025 and decline to 75 million bpd by 2050.
OPEC has urged for increased investment in the oil industry, estimating that $17.4 trillion will be needed by 2050, up from the $14 trillion projected last year. Al Ghais emphasized the necessity for a collaborative effort among policymakers and stakeholders to create an investment-friendly climate.