Russian wheat export prices have seen a slight uptick, with the price of 12.5% protein new crop wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in October rising to $217 per metric ton, an increase of $1 from the previous week. Analysts, including Dmitry Rylko from IKAR consultancy, expect prices to strengthen more significantly in November due to decreasing export volumes.
Rylko pointed out that the primary factor influencing price dynamics is the limited availability of wheat for export from southern regions, necessitating supplies from more distant areas, which will incur higher costs. Meanwhile, Sovecon consultancy reported that wheat prices remained stable between $217 and $220 per ton.
In September, Russia’s wheat exports were estimated at 4.8 million tons, slightly down from 4.9 million tons a year earlier. Weekly grain exports fell to 0.91 million tons, down from 1.06 million the previous week, with wheat exports also declining from 1.01 million to 0.84 million tons.
The Ministry of Agriculture has reported that 78% of the cereal area has been harvested, yielding a total of 105.9 million tons of grain, including 77.7 million tons of wheat. However, adverse weather conditions have slowed harvesting efforts in the Urals, Siberia, and the Volga region, leading to the introduction of an emergency regime in five areas due to soil overwatering.
As of September 17, winter grains have been sown across 7.5 million hectares, compared to 7.9 million hectares in 2023, with the planting campaign gradually catching up to last year’s pace.