Coceral, the grain trade association, has significantly revised its estimates for the 2024 grain crop in the European Union and Britain, lowering the forecast from 296 million tons in June to 280.3 million tons. This represents a nearly 5% decrease compared to 2023, largely attributed to adverse weather conditions affecting crop yields across the region.
The most notable reduction is in soft wheat production, which is now expected to fall by 10% from last year, with estimates down to 126 million metric tons from 134.5 million tons projected earlier. Barley production estimates have also been adjusted downwards to 57.6 million tons from 59.9 million tons, although this figure still exceeds the 54.8 million tons harvested in the previous year.
Coceral noted that excessive rain and insufficient sunshine during the spring have severely impacted winter crop production, particularly in France and Germany. Additionally, the weather conditions have affected spring crop yields in southeastern Europe, where hot and dry weather during pollination has been detrimental.
The maize (corn) harvest forecast has also been cut to 60.3 million tons, down from 64.8 million tons, and oilseed production estimates have been lowered to 18.1 million tons from 19.4 million tons.