Russian wheat export prices remained largely unchanged last week, reflecting weak demand and deteriorating crop forecasts due to unfavorable weather conditions. As of the end of last week, the price for 12.5% protein Russian new crop wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in October was $215 per metric ton, a slight decrease of $1 from the previous week.
The Sovecon consultancy reported that prices for the nearest delivery dates for the same quality wheat rose to between $218 and $221 per ton, up from $217 to $220 the prior week. Analysts expect Russian FOB prices to remain stable or increase slightly as competition from Romania and Bulgaria diminishes.
Challenging weather has significantly impacted crop forecasts, with two regions in Siberia declaring a state of emergency due to excessive rainfall, while many winter growing areas are facing drought conditions. IKAR has revised its wheat crop forecast down to 82.2 million metric tons from 83.8 million tons, and exports are now expected to be 44 million metric tons, down from 44.5 million tons.
In the Black Sea region, hot and dry weather is raising concerns for the upcoming winter wheat crop, particularly in Russia’s Volga Valley, where the planting window typically closes in September. Despite these challenges, Sovecon estimates that Russia’s wheat exports reached a record high of 5.7 million tons in August, compared to 5.3 million tons the previous year.
As of August 30, Russian farmers had harvested 84.9 million tons of grain from 27.1 million hectares, down from 101.5 million tons from 29.4 million hectares at the same time last year. The average yield has also decreased, falling to 3.14 tons per hectare from 3.45 tons. The wheat harvest alone totaled 65.0 million tons from 18.8 million hectares, down from 74.5 million tons from 19.5 million hectares last year.