Brazilian soybean farmers are projected to achieve a 14% increase in production for the 2024/2025 season, according to a Reuters poll of analysts and market institutions. This forecast comes as expectations for increased rainfall in the last quarter of the year rise, despite the ongoing challenges posed by low international prices and previous unfavorable climate conditions.
The average estimate for the upcoming soybean harvest stands at 168 million metric tons, a significant rise from the 147.4 million tons recorded by the statistics agency Conab in the last harvest. The area dedicated to soybean cultivation is also expected to grow by 1.3% to 46.6 million hectares (115.2 million acres), marking a record but the slowest increase since the 2006/2007 season.
Analysts note that this growth rate is much slower compared to the average of 5% seen in recent years. Luiz Fernando Roque from Safras & Mercado remarked on the sluggish growth, while benchmark soybean futures in Chicago recently hit their lowest levels in about four years, primarily due to expectations of a record U.S. harvest.
Gabriel Faleiros, S&P Global Commodity Insights’ Latin America research manager, indicated that profitability for Brazilian farmers hinges on prices exceeding $9.50 per bushel to justify converting pastures into soybean fields. The chances of recovering productivity are considered high, particularly with favorable rain forecasts starting in October, aligning with the planting season for most Brazilian farmers.
However, Daniele Siqueira from AgRural cautioned that while northern regions like Mato Grosso may see good productivity, southern areas could face more severe drought conditions.