China’s wheat imports are projected to decrease in the latter half of 2024 due to rising domestic output and declining flour consumption. Following a record number of wheat purchases in recent years, analysts predict that this reduction will exert additional pressure on global wheat prices, which are currently near four-year lows due to ample supply.
Estimates for China’s wheat imports from July to December range between 2 million and 4 million tons, a drop from 4.09 million tons during the same period in 2023. Traders have noted a lack of interest among Chinese wheat importers since the domestic harvest became available, leading to fewer cargo bookings.
China’s summer wheat output has reached a record 138.22 million tons, reflecting a 2.7% increase from the previous year, supported by favorable growing conditions. Despite being the world’s largest wheat importer for the past two years, China’s imports between January and July totaled 10.08 million metric tons, primarily sourced from the U.S., France, Australia, and Canada. This volume exceeds the import quota set by Beijing for 2024, which stands at 9.636 million tons, resulting in a 65% import duty on additional volumes.