Ukrainian barley exports are projected to fall sharply in September, with producers indicating a potential reduction of up to 50% compared to August. The Ukrainian Agrarian Council reported that while 600,000 tons of barley were contracted for August, only 280,000 tons have been contracted for September.
The primary factor behind this decline is a significant drop in demand from China, which previously accounted for over half of Ukraine’s barley exports. The council noted that China is unlikely to return to purchasing Ukrainian grain, as it may shift its focus to Australian barley, which is expected to begin deliveries in December and January.
Without contracts from China, Ukraine’s monthly barley exports are anticipated to not exceed 300,000 tons. Some traders have already ceased barley intake, opting to switch to crops like corn instead. This year, Ukraine’s barley harvest has reached 5.5 million tons.
The Ukrainian traders union (UGA) has estimated that barley exports for the 2024/25 season will total around 2 million tons, a decrease from 2.5 million tons in the 2023/24 season.