China’s recent decision to impose export limits on antimony may initially seem like a strategic move rooted in Realpolitik, given its military applications, including use in nuclear weapons and night-vision technology. However, the underlying motivation is significantly tied to climate change and the country’s push for renewable energy.
Antimony is crucial for enhancing photovoltaic glass, which improves solar panel efficiency. China’s production capacity for solar energy surged to 1,000 gigawatts last year, primarily for domestic consumption, with solar power output increasing by 47% year-on-year in the first half of this year. This growth is part of China’s broader goal to install 1,200 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2030, a target it is on track to meet.
Despite concerns about potential overcapacity in solar panel production, demand for antimony in photovoltaic applications is expected to remain high. Industry leaders predict that the renewable sector will soon surpass traditional fire-retardant uses as the largest consumer of antimony.
However, antimony supply has been declining. China, the largest producer, accounted for nearly half of global production last year, but output has decreased significantly—down 55% from four years ago and nearly 80% from 2008 levels. Other countries, like Tajikistan and Russia, have tried to fill the gap, but global production is still only half of what it was in 2019. Consequently, the price of antimony has surged, increasing fivefold since 2019 and doubling just this year.
The new export restrictions require exporters to obtain licenses for selling antimony to entities that might use it for both military and civilian purposes, likely leading to a decrease in overall Chinese exports. While this may raise concerns about Beijing leveraging its market dominance in response to perceived unfair trade practices, the primary aim appears to be safeguarding China’s green initiatives.