The International Grains Council (IGC) has revised its forecast for global wheat production in the 2024/25 season, primarily due to a significant downgrade in France’s wheat output, which has experienced one of its worst harvests in decades. In its latest monthly update, the IGC projected global wheat production at 799 million metric tons, down from the previous estimate of 801 million but still above last season’s total of 794 million.
France’s wheat crop is now expected to be around 27.5 million tons, a sharp decrease from the earlier forecast of 31.0 million tons and significantly lower than the previous season’s 36.3 million tons. This decline has raised concerns about the overall impact on the global wheat market.
However, the IGC noted a partial offset in the forecast due to an upward revision for Ukraine’s wheat output, which is now estimated at 25.4 million tons, up from 23.4 million, although still below last season’s 28.4 million tons.
In addition to wheat, the IGC has also slightly increased its outlook for the world corn crop by 1 million tons to a total of 1.226 billion tons. The United States, the leading producer, is expected to harvest 384.7 million tons, an increase from the previously projected 379.2 million tons. Conversely, smaller crops are anticipated in Romania (8.5 million tons, down from 10.9 million) and Russia (13.7 million tons, down from 15.0 million).
Global soybean production has been raised to 419 million tons, up from 415 million, and significantly higher than last season’s 392 million. The IGC anticipates a record global soybean harvest in 2024/25, with substantial crops expected from all major producing countries.