Indonesia’s president-elect, Prabowo Subianto, has proposed a significant initiative to provide free meals to over 80 million school children, a plan that is expected to enhance dairy consumption and increase imports to support the country’s underdeveloped milk industry. This ambitious program, budgeted at $28 billion, aims to improve nutrition in a nation where caloric intake is heavily grain-based, and milk consumption remains low, with 21.5% of children under five experiencing stunting.
Set to take office in October, Prabowo has emphasized the need for Indonesia to achieve food self-sufficiency, despite the country being a major importer of various staples, including dairy. The agriculture ministry projects that the lunch program, which will also provide meals for expectant mothers, will require approximately 4.1 million tons of milk. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) anticipates that Indonesia will consume around 4 million tons of milk this year, with only 16% of this demand met by domestic fresh milk supply.
To meet the anticipated demand, Indonesia will need to significantly increase its dairy imports, particularly powdered milk from countries like New Zealand and live cattle from Australia. Industry experts point out the vast potential of this market, especially given the large number of children and pregnant mothers involved.
Prabowo’s long-standing vision for a “White Revolution” aims to expand milk consumption, and he has called for the importation of 1.5 million head of dairy cattle to bolster local production. Currently, the dairy herd in Indonesia is estimated at just under 260,000 head, making such an increase a monumental task that could take over a decade and cost billions.
Indonesia’s per capita milk consumption stands at 16.27 kg, significantly lower than that of its Southeast Asian neighbors and far below the global average. Factors contributing to this low consumption include limited land availability, high costs of dairy farming, and small-scale ownership. A recent outbreak of foot and mouth disease further impacted domestic production.
New Zealand currently leads in supplying milk to Indonesia, exporting nearly NZ$1 billion ($600 million) worth of dairy products in 2023, followed by the European Union. The inclusion of milk in the proposed school lunch program signals a recognition of dairy’s nutritional value, according to industry representatives.