Ukraine is making significant efforts to export grain this summer, leveraging military gains in the Black Sea region despite ongoing Russian attacks on its ports. As a major global producer of wheat and corn, Ukraine previously exported about 6 million tons of grain monthly before the 2022 invasion.
Grain sales are essential for Ukraine’s economy, and with global prices currently low, farmers are compelled to continue exporting to fund the upcoming winter sowing season. In July, Ukraine doubled its food exports to over 4.2 million metric tons compared to the same month last year, according to the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA), despite intensified assaults on critical export hubs like Odesa and Izmail.
While the exact destinations of July’s exports have not been disclosed, last season’s data showed that most wheat went to Spain, Egypt, and Indonesia, with corn primarily shipped to Spain and China.
This increase in exports comes even as this season’s grain output is expected to decline due to war-related disruptions, raising concerns about sustainability into the 2024/25 season. Dmytro Barinov, deputy head of Ukraine’s Seaport Authority, emphasized efforts to support business operations amid wartime conditions.
In July, Ukraine exported 3.7 million tons of agricultural goods through Odesa and 569,000 tons via the Danube, contrasting sharply with last year’s figures. Additionally, recent shipments have reached ports in China, Egypt, and Turkey.
Despite the surge in exports, forecasts for the 2024/25 season suggest a potential decline of 14.5 million tons, bringing total exports down to nearly a decade low of 35 million tons due to adverse weather and the ongoing conflict.