Strategie Grains has once again lowered its forecasts for the 2024 rapeseed and sunflower seed harvests in the European Union, citing ongoing unfavorable weather conditions impacting the bloc’s primary oilseed crops.
For the third consecutive month, the consultancy has revised its outlook for the EU’s rapeseed harvest, now estimating production at 17.27 million metric tons. This marks a decrease from the previous forecast of 17.80 million tons and is nearly 14% lower than last year’s output. The reductions are primarily attributed to lower yields and decreased acreage in key producing countries, including Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, and Romania.
Rapeseed harvesting is currently in its latter stages across Europe, and analysts have been anticipating a smaller crop due to months of heavy rainfall, particularly in France, where production is expected to decline by nearly 8%.
In terms of sunflower seeds, which are harvested in late summer and autumn, Strategie Grains has also cut its EU forecast for the second consecutive month, now projecting a crop of 9.65 million tons, down from 10.49 million tons. This forecast is below last year’s production of 9.80 million tons. After a wet spring, sunflower crops in Eastern Europe are now facing a hot and dry start to summer, leading to reduced expectations in Romania and Bulgaria, with Hungary also experiencing some negative impacts from July’s weather.
The European Commission recently echoed these concerns, lowering its monthly forecasts for EU rapeseed and sunflower seed production to 18.38 million and 10.14 million tons, respectively.
Strategie Grains maintained its outlook for the smaller EU soybean crop at 2.99 million tons, reflecting a 4.6% increase from last year, as higher planting is expected to offset lower yields.
Despite upward revisions to projected imports, EU rapeseed and sunflower seed stocks are anticipated to be tight in 2024/25, which is likely to result in higher prices than previously estimated. However, uncertainties surrounding the EU’s incoming deforestation regulations, which will affect imports of soybean and palm oil, could introduce volatility in the oilseed markets in the near term.