The Wheat Quality Council’s annual crop tour has revealed that U.S. spring wheat crops in northwest and north-central North Dakota are expected to achieve the highest yields since at least 1994. Crop scouts estimated an average hard red spring wheat yield of 53.7 bushels per acre, a significant increase from 45.7 bushels per acre in the same area last year. The five-year average yield for this region is 40.02 bushels, excluding 2020 when the tour was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Grain traders, millers, and exporters are closely monitoring the conditions of hard red spring wheat, which is primarily used in products like pizza crusts and bagels. While major wheat-growing areas in the Black Sea have faced drought conditions, improving yield forecasts from ongoing harvests in that region have influenced futures prices.
Scouts noted the lush fields in northern North Dakota, where high yields are anticipated. As the leading producer of spring wheat in the U.S., North Dakota’s performance is critical. Dave Green, executive vice president of the Wheat Quality Council, remarked on the uniform quality of crops across the state, stating, “I’ve been doing this for a long time, and I don’t ever remember the crops being this uniformly good all over the state.”
However, there are concerns regarding fusarium head blight, also known as scab, which can produce vomitoxin harmful to both animals and humans in high quantities. Grains testing positive for this toxin are often sold at a discount to millers. Green expressed uncertainty about the potential impact of scab on yields.
The scouts also forecast the highest yields on record in southern and east-central North Dakota. The tour will continue to assess fields in northeast North Dakota before releasing a final yield estimate. When asked about the reasons for the record yields, farmer Bill Ongstad simply stated, “Rain.”