The European Union’s crop monitoring service, MARS, has revised its forecasts for average grain yields in 2024, with the most significant reductions seen in maize and sunflower yields due to hot and dry weather in southeastern Europe. The report highlights contrasting weather conditions affecting grain and oilseed crops across the EU, with excessive rainfall in the north damaging winter cereals like wheat, which is on track for its smallest crop since 2020.
MARS noted that June and July were exceptionally hot in large parts of southern-central and southeastern Europe, with temperatures exceeding 35°C, adversely impacting summer crops during their flowering stages. Drought conditions in regions such as eastern Hungary, eastern Romania, and Bulgaria have further exacerbated these issues, leading to nearly 2 million hectares of maize and sunflower crops being affected in Romania alone.
The updated maize yield forecast is now 7.24 metric tons per hectare (t/ha), down from 7.55 t/ha previously predicted in June, and 4% lower than last year’s figures. Sunflower yield estimates have also been reduced by 5%, stabilizing at 2.09 t/ha, the same as in 2023.
In contrast, MARS increased its yield forecast for spring barley by 1% to 4.44 t/ha, which is 9% above the five-year average, thanks to favorable conditions in Spain and northern Europe. However, the yield estimate for winter barley was sharply cut to 5.76 t/ha from 5.96 t/ha, now 4% below 2023 levels due to excessive rainfall.
The rapeseed yield forecast has also been reduced to 3.10 t/ha, down from 3.16 t/ha, with below-average yields reported in France where harvesting is currently underway. For soft wheat, the predominant cereal in the EU, MARS maintained its yield estimate at 5.87 t/ha, slightly up from 5.86 t/ha in June and 5.81 t/ha last year. Sugar beet yields are projected to decrease to 73.4 t/ha from 74.4 t/ha in June, aligning with the five-year average.