Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, is expected to see its coffee output reduced by 4 million bags due to poor crop development linked to dry weather, according to consultancy Safras & Mercado. The new forecast estimates production for the 2024/25 season (July-June) at 66.04 million 60-kg bags, down from the previous estimate of 70.37 million bags.
The most significant reduction is in robusta coffee production, now projected at 20.7 million bags, a decrease from the earlier estimate of 23.32 million bags. For arabica coffee, production is now expected to be 45.3 million bags, down from 47.05 million.
Safras coffee analyst Gil Barabach noted that drier-than-normal weather and higher temperatures have negatively impacted the crop during the critical bean growth stage, resulting in smaller beans for both robusta and arabica varieties. He indicated that further downward adjustments to projections could be forthcoming.
Robusta coffee futures reached an all-time high last week, exacerbated by production issues in Vietnam, the largest producer of that variety. Additionally, Dutch bank Rabobank has also revised its Brazilian coffee crop forecast, now expecting production of 67.1 million bags, down from 69.8 million bags.
Rabobank’s coffee analyst, Guilherme Morya, stated that as July progresses, with no significant improvements in yields or bean size, it is appropriate to lower the crop estimate.