According to a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global electricity demand is projected to grow at its fastest rate in nearly 20 years, primarily driven by increased air conditioning usage as temperatures rise. This trend is expected to persist into 2025, supporting the continued operation of coal power plants despite the growth of renewable energy sources.
The surge in air conditioning demand follows a year marked by record global temperatures and severe heatwaves, prompting electricity grids to rely on coal as a reliable, albeit dirtier, baseload supply. IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security, Keisuke Sadamori, emphasized that this growth in electricity demand underscores the increasing role of electricity in economies and the effects of extreme weather.
The IEA forecasts that global power consumption will rise by approximately 4% in 2024, marking the largest growth since 2007, with a similar pace expected in 2025. This is a significant increase from the 2.5% demand growth recorded in 2023.
India is anticipated to lead this demand growth with an 8% increase in 2024, while China’s growth is expected to be 6%, down from 7% in 2023 as the economy restructures. The European Union is projected to rebound with a 1.7% growth after two years of contraction, while the United States is expected to see a 3% increase following a decline in 2023 due to mild weather.
Renewable energy production is also expected to rise, with its share of global electricity supply estimated to reach 35% by 2025, up from 30% in 2023. This anticipated growth will see solar and wind energy surpass hydropower in the global energy mix. While total renewable generation is expected to exceed coal-fired output by 2025, coal is projected to remain resilient in 2024, particularly influenced by hydropower availability in China.
As a result, carbon emissions from the global power sector are expected to plateau, with slight growth anticipated this year before declining in 2025.