According to three sources, the upcoming OPEC+ joint ministerial monitoring committee (JMMC) meeting on August 1 is unlikely to recommend changing the group’s oil output policy, including a plan to start unwinding one layer of oil output cuts from October.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, will hold the online JMMC meeting to review the market. One of the three OPEC+ sources said the meeting would serve as a “pulse check” for the health of the market.
Oil prices have risen in 2024 and were trading around $85 a barrel on Thursday, finding support from Middle East conflict and falling inventories. However, concern about higher for longer interest rates and demand has limited gains this year.
OPEC+ is currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5.7% of global demand, in a series of steps agreed since late 2022. At its last meeting in June, OPEC+ agreed to extend cuts of 3.66 million bpd by a year until the end of 2025 and to prolong the most recent layer of cuts – a 2.2 million bpd cut by eight members – by three months until the end of September 2024.
OPEC+ will gradually phase out the cuts of 2.2 million bpd over the course of a year from October 2024 to September 2025. However, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the group could tweak the agreement if needed, and Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman had previously said OPEC+ could pause or reverse the production hikes if the market is not strong enough.
The JMMC usually meets every two months and can make recommendations to change policy, which could then be discussed and ratified in a full OPEC+ ministerial meeting of all members.