According to France’s farm ministry, the country’s main wheat crop is expected to fall by 15% this year to its lowest level since 2020. The ministry’s first projection puts soft wheat production at 29.65 million metric tons, which would be only the third time in 20 years that output has been below 30 million tons, after 2020 and 2016.
The forecast is based on an expected yield of 6.99 tons per hectare, down from 7.38 tons per hectare last year, and an estimated harvested area of 4.24 million hectares, compared to 4.75 million in 2023. The ministry said that “excess moisture and a lack of sunshine have weighed on yield potential.”
Analysts and traders had been anticipating a soft wheat crop of around 29-30 million tons, but the worse-than-expected indications from France’s winter barley harvest have created additional concern about the wheat crop.
The ministry’s projection for the soft wheat yield was above the 6.4 tons per hectare forecast by crop institute Arvalis last week. If taken with the ministry’s latest area estimate, Arvalis’ yield forecast would give production of only around 27 million tons.
In addition to the soft wheat decline, the ministry also expects total barley production to fall by 8% from last year, with winter barley production down 17%. However, spring barley production is forecast to rise 26% to 3.27 million tons.
For rapeseed, production is pegged down nearly 8% from last year at 3.94 million tons, also below the ministry’s initial forecast. The ministry has sharply increased its 2024 estimate of the grain maize area, including crop grown for seeds, to 1.6 million hectares, up 22% on last year.