The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the crucial month of June, raising concerns for the country’s agricultural sector.
The monsoon rains, which are critical to the economic growth of Asia’s third-largest economy, typically begin in the south around June 1 and spread nationwide by July 8. This allows farmers to plant important crops such as rice, cotton, soybeans, and sugarcane.
However, the IMD has stated that the country is most likely to receive below-normal rains, or less than 92% of the long-period average rainfall, during the month of June. This is a change from the department’s previous expectation of normal rainfall during the month.
Since June 1, India has already received 20% less rainfall than normal, with almost all regions except for a few southern states experiencing shortfalls and some northwestern states facing heat waves.
The monsoon is crucial for the nearly $3.5-trillion Indian economy, as it brings nearly 70% of the rain that the country needs to water its farms and replenish reservoirs and aquifers. Nearly half of the farmland in the world’s second-biggest producer of rice, wheat, and sugar does not have access to irrigation and relies on these annual rains, which usually run until September.
The below-normal monsoon rainfall forecast for June is likely to raise concerns for the Indian agricultural sector and its broader economic implications.