OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, does not foresee a peak in oil demand in its long-term forecast. The group’s secretary general, Hathaim Al Ghais, expects global oil demand to grow to 116 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2045, and possibly higher.
This contrasts with the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) recent report, which suggested that oil demand will peak by 2029 and level off at around 106 million bpd towards the end of the decade. Al Ghais called this IEA report “dangerous commentary, especially for consumers, and will only lead to energy volatility on a potentially unprecedented scale.”
OPEC+, which includes OPEC and its allies like Russia, has been making a series of deep output cuts since late 2022 to support the market. The group is currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 million bpd, or about 5.7% of global demand.
The IEA, which advises industrialized countries, had previously stated that oil demand would peak by 2030. However, it has now moved forward the date for peak oil demand to 2029.
Al Ghais argued that similar narratives from the IEA, such as suggesting that gasoline demand had peaked in 2019 or that coal demand had peaked in 2014, have been proven wrong in the past. He pointed out that OPEC sees oil demand growth of 4 million bpd over the two years of 2024 and 2025, with other forecasters also expecting an expansion of over 3 million bpd.
The OPEC secretary general described the IEA’s scenario of almost no growth in oil demand from 2026 to 2030 as “an unrealistic scenario, one that would negatively impact economies across the world.” He accused the IEA of continuing its “anti-oil narrative.”