According to estimates presented by Mexico’s agricultural ministry, the country’s 2024 corn harvest is set to be severely impacted by a prolonged drought, with overall production expected to decline by 9%.
The ministry report forecasts Mexico’s 18-month corn season to produce around 25.15 million metric tons, including 21.89 million tons of white corn, which is used to make key staples like tortillas. White corn production is expected to decline by 10% compared to the previous season.
While Mexico is largely self-sufficient in white corn production, the country imports large quantities of yellow corn, mainly for livestock feed. The government estimates that local yellow corn production should rise by 0.7% after a 4.5% decline last year.
The prolonged drought conditions have affected more than three-quarters of the country, according to the national water commission Conagua. The severe drought has resulted in risks of fires, crop losses, and water shortages across reservoirs, streams, and wells.
U.S. forecaster AccuWeather’s chief agricultural meteorologist, Dale Mohler, has predicted that the late arrival of rain may not be enough to salvage a successful harvest for corn and other crops in Mexico, potentially leading the country to seek supplies from the United States.
Mexico is a major buyer of U.S. yellow corn, purchasing nearly $6 billion-worth each year. However, the two countries are currently engaged in a dispute over exports of genetically modified U.S. crops, which is being settled through a panel under the North American trade agreement. A resolution is expected by the end of this year.
The ministry’s report highlighted that the key corn-producing states of Sinaloa and Jalisco have been “greatly affected by the drought.” Sinaloa, Mexico’s largest white corn producer, is expected to see a 31% decline in grain production, while Jalisco is forecast to produce 0.7% less.
The significant impact on Mexico’s corn harvest underscores the challenges the country faces due to the prolonged drought conditions and the potential need for increased imports to meet domestic demand.