According to Arkady Zlochevsky, the head of Russia’s grain union, frosts in Russia have affected between 15% and 30% of the country’s winter grains, varying by region. This figure is much higher than the estimates provided by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, which has put the percentage of damaged areas at around 1%.
Zlochevsky explained that the ministry’s lower estimate is likely referring to all crops, including grasses and fodder, rather than focusing specifically on winter grains. In contrast, Zlochevsky stated that the “damage to winter crops alone was from 15% to 20-25% and even 30% – (depending) on the region.”
Winter grains are those planted in the autumn and harvested in the summer, as opposed to spring wheat that is planted in the spring and harvested in the autumn. The extent of the crop damage from the May frosts is being closely monitored by international grain markets, as Russia is the world’s biggest wheat exporter.
Despite the concerns raised by the grain union, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture is maintaining its 2024 grain harvest forecast of 132 million tons, though it has acknowledged that the figure could be adjusted if a drought persists in several regions.
Agricultural consultancies, however, have already lowered their forecasts for the wheat component of the harvest, with IKAR estimating 81.5 million metric tons and Sovecon forecasting 80.5 million metric tons.
Russia has declared an emergency in 10 regions to facilitate insurance claims by farmers, but it has stated that its grain exports will not be affected. The country plans to export 60 million tons of grain in the 2024/25 season, down from an estimated 70 million tons, including 53 million tons of wheat, in the 2023/24 season.
The conflicting estimates between the grain union and the government highlight the uncertainty surrounding the extent of the crop damage in Russia, which could have significant implications for global grain markets.