Turkey has announced that it will halt wheat imports from June 21 until at least October 15 in order to protect domestic farmers from price fluctuations, ensure the domestic procurement of raw materials, and create a favorable market for producers.
The decision by the Turkish Ministry of Agriculture was made in accordance with foreign trade measures recommended by the Trade Ministry. The ministry stated that the move is intended to “prevent our producers from being affected by price decreases due to supply density during the harvest period, to meet the raw material supply required for our exports from domestic production, and to ensure market stability in favor of producers.”
The news sent U.S. and European wheat futures tumbling, with both falling around 2%. Traders fear that the move will hit Russian exporters hard, as Turkey is the world’s fifth-largest wheat importer and buys the majority of its wheat from Russia.
A German grain trader commented, “Russia is likely to be the main loser on this. Russia supplies somewhere between 60-75% of Turkey’s wheat imports and this ban looks like coming into force just as Russia’s new crop needs to be marketed.” The trader added that if Russian wheat cannot be sold in Turkey, it will have to be offered elsewhere at low prices, potentially benefiting other importers in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.
However, the import ban could also cut importer demand for European and U.S. wheat, as traders expect other markets to benefit from the reduced Turkish demand.
The Turkish Ministry of Agriculture stated that the import halt could be extended beyond October 15 depending on market conditions at that time. The ministry also announced that the exports of flour from domestically-produced wheat, which had been banned since September 2018, will now be allowed, and that barley, milling, and durum wheat exports can be done using a TMO export license in a “controlled” way.
According to the International Grains Council, Turkey is expected to import 12 million metric tons of grain in the 2024/25 season, including 8.5 million tons of wheat.