Russia has declared a federal emergency in 10 regions due to damage to crops from May frosts, a measure that will provide extra funds to help farmers. However, officials have stated that this should not derail the country’s export obligations.
The move comes as no surprise, as the Agriculture Minister had earlier indicated that she hoped the emergency declaration would be introduced, paving the way for insurance claims by farmers.
Deputy Agriculture Minister Andrei Razin has stated that the impact of the weather problems on farm output will be minimized and that Moscow will fulfill all of its export commitments. He said that almost 800,000 hectares have already been replanted, and that both domestic consumption and external export obligations will be met.
However, the sharp May frosts in Russia’s breadbasket regions have caused agricultural consultancies IKAR and Sovecon to downgrade their forecasts for this year’s wheat crop. IKAR has cut its forecast to 81.5 million metric tons, a drop of 12% since mid-March, while last year’s harvest was around 93 million tons.
Sovecon has also reduced its wheat crop forecast to 80.7 million metric tons, down from 94 million metric tons projected in March. The consultancy warned that with the current hot and dry conditions in the winter wheat regions and excessive rain in Siberia, the crop could potentially fall even further, below 80 million metric tons.
Despite the deteriorating crop prospects and rising domestic prices, the risk of additional restrictions on grain exports has increased. However, the Ministry of Agriculture itself is not believed to be in favor of such restrictions, as Russia is the world’s biggest wheat exporter.
The state of emergency declared on Friday applies to 10 regions, including Luhansk, a part of eastern Ukraine that Russia claimed as its own territory in 2022, a few months into the war.