Despite severe frosts in the first half of May and a subsequent drought in most regions of Ukraine, the country’s acting Agriculture Minister, Taras Vysotskiy, has stated that Ukraine has maintained its grain harvest forecast for 2024 at 52.4 million metric tons.
Vysotskiy told Reuters, “At this time, we will not review it (the forecast). We agreed to review it in July.” The comments come as weather forecasters and agricultural scientists have warned that the unfavourable weather conditions in May could affect the country’s overall crop harvest.
Ukraine experienced several waves of frost between May 1 and May 16, which have been particularly damaging to rapeseed crops in central and eastern regions like Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, and Kirovohrad. The Agrarian Council, Ukraine’s largest agribusiness group, estimates that the 2024 rapeseed crop could fall to no more than 4.1 million metric tons, down from around 4.7 million tons in 2023, largely due to the adverse weather in early May.
While analysts have noted a deterioration of conditions for all crops due to the prolonged absence of rain across most of Ukraine last month, they have yet to identify critical consequences. However, they have pointed out that May 2024 was one of the driest in Ukraine for 30 years, and in some regions, for more than 100 years.
Weather forecasters have reported that as of May 31, air and soil drought of varying intensity was observed in most areas of the Kharkiv, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, as well as some areas of the Poltava and Dnipro regions.
Ukraine is a major global producer and exporter of grains and oilseeds, but its harvests and exports have declined since the Russian invasion in February 2022. Despite the challenging weather conditions, the country’s agriculture ministry has maintained its 2024 grain harvest forecast, indicating its commitment to maintaining production levels and supporting the country’s agricultural sector.