India’s all-important monsoon rains have arrived two days earlier than expected, hitting the coast of the southernmost state of Kerala on Thursday. This early arrival offers respite from a grueling heat wave and boosts prospects for bumper harvests in the coming season.
The summer monsoon rains are critical to India’s economic growth, as they provide the necessary water to support the agricultural sector, which accounts for nearly 15% of the country’s GDP. The rains typically begin in Kerala around June 1 and then spread across the country by mid-July, allowing farmers to plant key crops such as rice, corn, cotton, soybeans, and sugarcane.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the monsoon has already covered nearly all of Kerala and most northeastern states. The weather agency expects the rains to spread to the neighboring states of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Assam over the next two to three days.
This early arrival of the monsoon provides much-needed relief from the ongoing heat wave, which has driven maximum temperatures in some northern and western regions above 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit).
The monsoon rains are the lifeblood of India’s nearly $3.5-trillion economy, as they provide nearly 70% of the water needed to irrigate farms and recharge reservoirs and aquifers. With nearly half of the country’s farmland dependent on these annual rains, a plentiful monsoon is crucial for food production.
In 2023, below-average rainfall depleted reservoirs, leading to reduced food output and prompting the government to impose curbs on exports of commodities such as rice, wheat, sugar, and onions. The resumption of these exports will depend on how quickly production recovers in 2024, which is closely tied to the performance of the upcoming monsoon season.
The IMD has forecast an average amount of rain in June, although maximum temperatures are likely to remain above normal. For the full monsoon season, the weather agency expects rainfall to be 106% of the long-term average, aided by the expected onset of the La Nina weather phenomenon during July and September.
This early arrival of the monsoon rains is a positive development for India’s economy, offering the potential to alleviate the impact of the heat wave and boost agricultural production, which could help rein in elevated food inflation.