Russian mining and metals giant Nornickel has revised its forecasts for the global nickel and palladium markets in 2024 and 2025.
Nornickel, the world’s largest producer of palladium and high-grade nickel, now expects the global nickel surplus to be around 100,000 metric tons this year, down from its previous estimate of 190,000 tons. The company says most of this surplus will come from low-grade nickel.
Looking ahead to 2025, Nornickel expects the global nickel surplus to remain at the same level of 100,000 tons. The company cites growing nickel demand from the stainless steel, alloys, specialty steels, and electric vehicle sectors, which will be offset by new nickel production capacity coming online in Indonesia and increased supply of nickel metal and chemicals.
As for palladium, Nornickel, which accounts for over 40% of global production, has revised its market forecast for the current year. The company now expects a global palladium deficit of 0.9 million ounces, up from its previous estimate of 0.4 million ounces. This larger deficit is attributed to lower than expected secondary palladium production.
Looking ahead to 2025, Nornickel forecasts the global palladium market deficit to decrease to 0.3 million ounces.
These revised forecasts from the world’s leading nickel and palladium producer provide valuable insights into the anticipated supply and demand dynamics in these critical metal markets over the next few years. The changes reflect the company’s assessment of evolving industry trends and production capacity changes globally.