The Ukrainian Grain Traders Union (UGA) has revised down its forecast for Ukraine’s combined grain and oilseed harvest in 2024 to 74.6 million metric tons, from the previous outlook of 76.1 million tons.
According to the UGA’s statement, the revised 2024 harvest estimate could include 25.5 million tons of corn, 19.1 million tons of wheat, 4.6 million tons of barley, 13.7 million tons of sunflower seed, 5.5 million tons of soybeans, and 4.3 million tons of rapeseed.
Ukraine is a major global producer and exporter of grains and oilseeds, but its agricultural output has declined since the Russian invasion in February 2022. The agriculture ministry has stated that Ukraine has lost about 30% of its total agricultural potential, and nearly 20% of its agricultural land has been occupied.
Prior to the invasion, Ukraine had a record grain and oilseed harvest of around 107 million tons in 2021, including 85 million tons of various grains and 16.4 million tons of sunflower seed.
The UGA cited the reduction in sown areas and a somewhat dry period in May this year in the eastern and southern regions of the country as the reasons for the potential decline in the 2024 harvest.
Despite the smaller forecast, the UGA expects overall exports to stay at almost the same level as the previous forecast of 43.5 million tons, compared to the previous estimate of 43.7 million tons. The projected 2024/25 July-June exports could include 20.5 million tons of corn, 13 million tons of wheat, 3.4 million tons of rapeseed, and 4 million tons of soybeans.