According to a new report from Goldman Sachs, global oil demand is expected to continue growing until 2034, peaking at 110 million barrels per day (bpd). This revised forecast represents a significant increase from the bank’s previous 2030 demand projection of 106 million bpd.
The research team, led by Nikhil Bhandari, cited a potential slowdown in electric vehicle (EV) adoption as a key factor behind the extended period of oil demand growth. They expect demand to plateau at the peak level until 2040, followed by a moderate annual decline of 0.3%.
This longer period of rising oil consumption could benefit the income of major producers, such as the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+). However, it could also lead to increased greenhouse gas emissions from the continued use of fossil fuels.
The report highlighted that the majority of global oil demand growth until 2040 will be driven by emerging markets in Asia, with China and India being the primary contributors. Additionally, the bank expects global refining utilization to remain well above historical average levels between 2024 and 2027, indicating a prolonged upswing in the refining industry.
Goldman Sachs is more optimistic about the demand outlook for middle distillates, such as diesel and jet fuel, compared to gasoline. The bank believes the incremental supply growth for middle distillates will lag behind demand growth more significantly over the 2024-2027 period, as the demand peak for these products is expected to occur later, in the mid-2030s, compared to gasoline in 2028.