China, the world’s biggest agriculture importer, has set targets to drastically reduce its reliance on overseas buying over the next decade as part of its push for food security. However, experts say these goals will be exceedingly difficult to meet due to the country’s limited land and water resources.
The Chinese government envisions achieving 92% self-sufficiency in staple grains and beans by 2033, up from 84% during 2021-2023, on a path towards President Xi Jinping’s goal of making China an “agriculture power” by the middle of the century. This would involve a 75% plunge in corn imports to 6.8 million tons, a 60% drop in wheat imports to 4.85 million tons, and a 21% decline in soybean imports to 78.7 million tons.
However, these targets defy the trends of the past decade, in which grains and oilseed imports have surged 87%. Experts argue that forecasting a sharp reversal where the country would be importing less than it does today seems questionable.
The main challenges China faces in meeting these goals are a lack of land and water resources. In contrast to Beijing’s projections, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) sees China’s corn imports in 2033/34 roughly in line with current levels, wheat imports declining 20%, and soybean imports rising 39%.
The USDA also expects growth in demand for animal feed, a key user of soybeans and corn, to outpace domestic corn output expansion and spur imports of sorghum and barley.
Analysts and industry executives argue that China will struggle to meet its ambitious food security targets due to these fundamental resource constraints. The country will have to heavily rely on technology, including genetically modified crops, and expand its cultivated area to boost farming productivity and reduce its reliance on imports.