The Illinois Wheat Association’s one-day crop tour has projected an average wheat yield of 104 bushels per acre (bpa) in the state, higher than the 97.1 bpa projected a year ago. This comes despite concerns over the impact of crop disease pressure, amplified by wet conditions this spring.
The projected yield is well above the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s official forecast for Illinois’ 2024 wheat yield of 83 bpa, down from last year’s record high of 87 bpa. Illinois is the seventh-largest U.S. winter wheat producer and the top producing state of soft red winter wheat, a class used to make cookies and snack foods.
However, crop scouts on the tour cautioned that the presence of fusarium head blight, a fungal disease also known as head scab, in many fields could reduce final yields. Scab can cause elevated levels of a toxin called vomitoxin in wheat, which can sicken animals and people. Grain elevators routinely measure for it and can heavily discount or reject wheat found with more than 2 parts per million.
While the infection level appeared to be low, experts warned that the true impact of the disease won’t be clear until closer to harvest time. “It’s going to come down to how much that (disease) is going to progress in the next couple weeks,” said Dr. Jessica Rutkoski, a University of Illinois wheat breeder who participated in the tour.
The production uncertainty in Illinois comes as top global wheat exporter Russia is facing frost damage to its crop, fueling concern about tightening global supplies and sending U.S. wheat prices to the highest level in 10 months.
Overall, the Illinois Wheat Association’s tour suggests the state is poised to produce a higher-yielding wheat crop than a year ago, but the final outcome will depend on how the crop disease situation evolves in the coming weeks.