According to JPMorgan analysts, BHP Group BHP.AX would need to boost its latest offer by around 30% to reflect the fair value of Anglo American AAL.L and its key copper assets.
The analysts raised their price target for London-listed Anglo to 27.75 pounds per share after re-examining the value of its copper assets. They said the discount for Anglo’s shares to the implied value of BHP’s offer was at its greatest level, implying the market sees a deal as unlikely.
Anglo has rejected two bid proposals from BHP. Under UK takeover rules, BHP must make a firm offer by May 22, or walk away. BHP’s latest proposal was 27.53 pounds per share, up from 25.08 previously.
“Anglo’s shares now trade at the greatest discount (-13.6%) to the implied value of BHP’s offer, implying that the market assigns a low probability to BHP’s ability to raise its offer and achieve an agreed deal,” the JPMorgan analysts said.
In a 20% “change of control” scenario, the analysts estimated the value of Anglo American plc at around £32 per share (approximately $50 billion), or the Anglo plc Rump (the entity BHP is seeking to acquire) at $39 billion (£24.79), about 30% higher than the value of BHP’s current offer.
The analysts increased their December 2025 fair value for Anglo Copper by 25% to $27 billion (17.47 pounds per share) and increased their Anglo price target to 27.75 pounds per share from 26 pounds previously. This was due to their copper reassessment and a $4 billion reduction in their forecast for capital spending over 2025.
On Monday, Anglo rejected an improved 34 billion pound ($43 billion) proposal from BHP, saying BHP “continues to significantly undervalue” its business. BHP has proposed that Anglo divest its South African platinum and iron ore assets as a pre-condition to an offer for the rest of the company.