According to a PetroChina official, China’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports could reach record levels in 2024. Zhang Yaoyu, the global head of LNG and new energies for PetroChina International, made the forecast at an industry conference in Bangkok.
Zhang projected that China, the world’s top importer of LNG, will ship between 78-80 million metric tons of the super-chilled fuel this year, a 9-12% increase from the 71.2 million metric tons imported in 2023, according to China’s customs data. The previous record was 78.8 million metric tons set in 2021.
The forecast is based on the strong LNG demand from the industrial and commercial sectors in the first quarter of 2023, where China has already shipped nearly 20 million tons of LNG. Zhang cited the chemicals, paper, steel, and cement industries as driving the growth in demand.
However, Zhang noted that for power plants in China, LNG prices would need to drop below $6 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) for consumption to pick up. The current Asia spot LNG prices are around $10.50/mmBtu, up from a low of around $8/mmBtu in February this year.
Despite the strong LNG demand forecast, Zhang expects coal to continue to support grid stability in China and does not see greater LNG adoption in power generation amid the increasing use of renewable energy. He stated that the reliability of renewable power sources is still a challenge, and coal will remain the base fuel in the short term.