The annual three-day Wheat Quality Council crop tour of Kansas has projected an average yield for hard red winter wheat in the northern portion of the state at 49.9 bushels per acre (bpa). This estimate is the highest in three years and a significant improvement from the weather-damaged 2022 crop, when the tour’s day-one estimate was just 29.8 bpa, a two-decade low.
Justin Gilpin, CEO of the Kansas Wheat Commission, noted that “Last year was such a terrible year with the drought. The crop looks good compared to the previous year.” The tour’s findings are closely watched by grain traders, millers, exporters, and global buyers, as tightening global stocks and crop-damaging weather in top supplier Russia have recently rallied wheat futures to the highest levels in nearly eight months.
While the Black Sea region has in recent years diminished the United States’ standing as a top wheat exporter, the widening drought in the Plains wheat belt has supported prices. Scouts on the tour found that wheat conditions across northern Kansas varied wildly, with drought and frost damage in south-central Kansas, while fields in the northwest looked healthy and green.
Concerns over stripe rust were noted, but the drought was the more pressing issue. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor estimates that 75% of winter wheat in Kansas is under moderate drought, a near three-fold increase from two months ago. The driest areas are in southwestern Kansas, which the tour will survey on Wednesday.
Hard red winter wheat makes up the vast majority of wheat grown in Kansas and is mostly used to bake bread due to its high protein content. The tour is scheduled to release its final yield forecast for Kansas on Thursday, providing further insight into the state of the 2023 wheat crop.