The International Energy Agency (IEA) has trimmed its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024, widening the gap with the expectations of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The IEA now expects oil demand to grow by 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down 140,000 bpd from its previous forecast. The agency cited weak industrial activity and a mild winter sapping gasoil consumption, particularly in Europe, as the main reasons for the downward revision.
In contrast, OPEC has maintained its expectation that world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million bpd in 2024, creating a 1.15 million bpd difference, or about 1% of global demand, between the two organizations.
The divergence in forecasts sends mixed signals about the strength of the oil market in 2024 and the pace of the world’s transition to cleaner fuels. The IEA, which represents industrialized countries, and OPEC, the group of oil-producing nations, have often presented differing views on the outlook for the global oil market.
For 2025, the IEA has slightly raised its demand growth estimate to 1.2 million bpd, while OPEC has left its 1.85 million bpd forecast unchanged, indicating a narrower gap in their projections for the following year.