Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has indicated that there are early signs of a potential La Niña weather event forming in the Pacific Ocean later this year. The bureau has declared a “La Niña Watch”, stating that when such criteria have been met in the past, a La Niña event has subsequently developed around 50% of the time.
La Niña events typically bring wetter weather to eastern Australia and Southeast Asia, while resulting in drier conditions in the Americas. This can have significant consequences for global agriculture, as the weather patterns associated with La Niña can impact crop yields and production in various regions.
The bureau noted that sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific have been steadily cooling since December 2023, and their modeling suggests that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will likely remain neutral until at least July 2024.
Other forecasters have also predicted the potential for a La Niña event later this year. Last week, Japan’s weather bureau said there was a 60% chance of a La Niña occurrence by November, while a U.S. government forecaster estimated a 69% chance of it developing during the July-September period.
The development of a La Niña event could have far-reaching implications for global agricultural markets and supply chains, as the associated weather patterns can disrupt crop production and distribution in many parts of the world. Governments and agricultural stakeholders will be closely monitoring the evolving situation in the Pacific to prepare for potential impacts.