According to Eduardo Mello Franco, marketing manager for pricing at Brazilian mining company Vale, China’s iron ore imports in 2024 are expected to be around 1.170 to 1.180 billion metric tons, similar to the 1.18 billion tons imported in the previous year.
Mello Franco shared this forecast during an industry conference in Singapore, noting that despite the slowing property market, China’s economy is showing strong resilience in the near term. He highlighted that infrastructure and manufacturing are still performing well in the country.
China’s iron ore imports in the first quarter of 2024 totaled 310.13 million tons, up 5.5% from the same period a year earlier, according to customs data. However, China’s crude steel production during the same period declined by 1.9% year-on-year, reaching 256.55 million tons.
While China’s economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, Mello Franco also discussed the global outlook for steel production. He projected that world steel production is likely to climb to 2.070 billion metric tons by 2030, up from the expected 1.9 billion tons.
Mello Franco also highlighted the growth potential in emerging regions, such as the Middle East, India, and Southeast Asia, which he believes will be significant sources of growth in the coming years. Additionally, he noted that the energy transition is driving growth in steel demand, as steel will be a crucial material in this transition.
Overall, Vale’s forecast for China’s 2024 iron ore imports suggests a relatively stable outlook, with the company expecting the world’s largest buyer to maintain its import levels at around 1.17-1.18 billion tons.