Global petrol demand growth is expected to halve in 2024, squeezing second-half refinery margins, as the shift to electric vehicles (EVs) accelerates in China and the United States, analysts say.
In the lowest growth since 2020, global gasoline demand is likely to rise by only 340,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year, to stand at 26.5 million bpd, down from growth of 700,000 bpd last year, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie. This is driven by China nearing the point of peak transport fuel demand and the U.S. having already surpassed it.
“Penetration of electric vehicles has been increasing in U.S. and China,” said Woodmac analyst Sushant Gupta. “For this year, Chinese demand will grow by only 10,000 bpd, due to higher EV uptake.”
Consultancy Rystad Energy forecasts global gasoline demand at about 26 million bpd in 2024, up about 300,000 bpd from growth of about 700,000 bpd in 2023, fueled by the consumption boom after the pandemic.
China, once the world’s driver of gasoline demand, is expected to account for more than half of all EV sales this year, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). China’s gasoline consumption is set to grow by about 1.3% this year, while Sinopec’s research arm expects a 1.7% rise.
On the other hand, booming car sales, high economic growth, and low EV penetration are driving gasoline demand in India and Indonesia. India’s petrol consumption is forecast to hit a fresh record of 39.2 million tons (908,000 bpd) in the year to March 2025, up about 5% from the previous year.