Consultancy Strategie Grains has kept its forecast for this year’s rapeseed output in the European Union nearly unchanged at 18.1 million metric tons, pointing to good crop conditions in large producing regions of the bloc.
However, the new rapeseed crop forecast would still be 9% below last year’s harvest of 19.9 million tons, after a sharp decline in the planted area.
Strategie Grains stated that the conditions for rapeseed field development are quite satisfactory in the main EU producing countries, with the crops being at advanced stages of growth compared to average years due to warm, sunny weather.
Nonetheless, the consultancy noted that a drop in temperatures from mid-April in Germany and Poland, with possible frost risks, raised some concerns for flowering.
Last week, the European Commission projected the EU 2024 rapeseed crop at 19.4 million tons, down from 19.8 million in 2023.
Regarding sunflower production, Strategie Grains increased its projection for the EU in 2024 to 10.75 million tons, from 10.7 million, up nearly 11% on 2023. The soybean output forecast was held at 3.1 million tons, up about 7% from a revised 2.9 million tons last year.
The consultancy expects the sharp drop in rapeseed production to pull down crushing by almost 10% next season, while ending stocks would fall sharply, reflecting a tight EU situation at the end of June 2025.
In the case of sunseeds, the situation is also expected to be in deficit, with demand increasing more than supply due to good crush margins.
Strategie Grains noted that there is now a slight upward potential for rapeseed prices by the end of the 2023/24 marketing year, given the deficit on the EU balance sheet. However, this upward potential will be limited by the surplus that has appeared on the oil balance sheet at the EU and world level.