The United States’ share in China’s soybean imports is set to decline further in 2024, as the world’s biggest oilseed consumer is expected to increase purchases from Argentina, which is projected to have a bumper soybean crop.
According to the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database, the U.S. accounted for less than a quarter of China’s soybean imports in 2023, compared to 51% in 2009. This decline has been driven by the rise in soybean production in Brazil, which has become the dominant supplier to China.
Now, traders and analysts say that Argentina’s increased soybean supply is poised to further erode the U.S. market share in China.
“This year we have large soybean supply coming from Argentina which is going to heat up competition,” said a trader at an international company that owns oilseed processing factories in China. “U.S. share is already shrinking. They are going to lose more to Argentina this year.”
China’s soybean imports have nearly doubled in the last 15 years, reaching 99.41 million metric tons in 2023, worth $60 billion. The drop in U.S. soybeans to China could add more pressure on Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures, which have already lost around 10% in 2024 after a 15% decline last year.
“This year, Brazilian soybean output has declined slightly but Argentina’s production has increased,” said an oilseed trader at a state-owned trading firm in Beijing. “Argentine beans are likely to replace some U.S. beans during the fourth quarter.”
The increased competition from Argentina is yet another challenge for the United States, which has seen its dominance in the Chinese soybean market diminish over the years. The rise of Brazil and now Argentina’s growing presence is expected to further erode the U.S. share in the world’s largest soybean importer.