Argus Media has revised its projection for this year’s wheat production in Ukraine, a major exporter of the grain, down to 19.93 million metric tons. This figure represents a decrease of approximately 230,000 tons from the previous forecast and an 11% drop compared to the previous year, primarily attributed to a reduction in the planted area.
The current forecast stands in contrast to the five-year average of 25.9 million tons, reflecting a significant deviation from the typical output levels. The decline in cereal planting in Ukraine has been influenced by factors such as the loss of territory by Kyiv following Russia’s invasion and the preference of cash-strapped farmers for more profitable crops like oilseeds.
According to Argus, the reduced production is a consequence of revised estimates for harvested areas, which are now projected at 4.37 million hectares for the 2024/25 period, down from the November forecast of 4.55 million hectares and the current season’s level of approximately 4.70 million hectares. However, the decline in harvested areas was partially offset by an increase in the average wheat yield forecast to 4.56 tons per hectare, up from the previous forecast of 4.43 tons per hectare and surpassing the five-year average of 4.26 tons per hectare.
Argus’s outlook, based on the results of its annual crop tour, diverges notably from the Ukrainian farm ministry’s forecast, which projected the 2024 wheat harvest at 19 million tons last week, primarily due to an expected reduction in the sowing area.