The latest weekly crop progress report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) revealed that only 50% of the U.S. winter wheat crop is in good-to-excellent condition, falling short of average analyst estimates by 4 percentage points. Despite still being the highest ratings for this time of year since 2020, the unexpected decline has raised concerns about dry weather in the southern Plains.
In particular, key wheat-producing states in the southern Plains, such as Kansas, witnessed a sharp decrease in ratings. The USDA rated 36% of the Kansas wheat crop as good to excellent, down from 43% the previous week, while in Oklahoma, another major grower, 49% of the crop was rated good-to-excellent, marking an 11-percentage-point decrease from the previous week. Similar declines were observed in Montana, Colorado, and Texas.
Grain merchandisers in Oklahoma have reported visibly parched wheat fields for over two weeks, with some wheat showing signs of distress such as curling leaves and a blue tinge, indicating severe moisture deficiency.
As of April 16, the USDA reported that 24% of U.S. winter wheat was located in drought-affected areas, up from 18% the previous week. In Kansas, the leading winter wheat producer, 53% of the state was experiencing moderate drought, a significant increase from 29% the previous week, as indicated by the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor.
Meanwhile, farmers have initiated the planting of spring crops, with the USDA reporting that 12% of corn has been planted as of the week ending April 24, in line with analyst estimates and doubling from the previous week’s 6%. Additionally, 8% of soybeans have been planted, compared to 3% the previous week, and 15% of spring wheat has been planted, up from 7% the previous week, aligning with the higher end of analyst estimates.