The Russian economy ministry has adjusted its forecasts for the country’s crude oil export prices for the next three years, revising them down to $65 per barrel, as revealed in an updated outlook obtained by Reuters on Tuesday. These forecasts, integral to the compilation of the federal budget, have been reduced from previous estimates of $71.3 per barrel for 2024, $70.1 for 2025, and $70 for 2026.
Russia has encountered a series of sanctions from the West in response to the conflict in Ukraine, including limitations on Russian oil purchases and a price cap of $60 per barrel. This downward revision is expected to exert additional pressure on Russia’s budget, which witnessed a deficit of $6.56 billion, equivalent to 0.3% of the gross domestic product, in the first quarter.
Despite the budgetary challenges, the revenue from oil and gas surged by 79.1% in the initial three months of 2024 compared to the previous year, supported by elevated commodity prices.