India has forecasted above-average monsoon rainfall in 2024, which could potentially provide a significant boost to the country’s agricultural sector and broader economy. The monsoon, which delivers nearly 70% of the rain required for crop irrigation and reservoir replenishment, is crucial for India’s agricultural output, particularly for the nearly half of farmland that relies solely on these rains for cultivation.
A successful monsoon season is anticipated to positively impact farm and overall economic growth, potentially contributing to a reduction in food price inflation, which has been a concern for policymakers in recent months. The monsoon, expected to total 106% of the long-term average, is vital for replenishing reservoir levels and supporting agricultural production, especially following below-normal rainfall in the previous year, which led to depleted reservoir levels and impacted food production.
The forecast, based on both dynamical and statistical models, indicates a positive outlook for the monsoon season, with the India Meteorological Department defining average or normal rainfall as between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season. IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra highlighted that the weakening El Niño and the subsequent transition to a neutral stage, followed by the onset of La Niña, are expected to influence the monsoon dynamics.
This positive forecast is expected to have a favorable impact on the food inflation outlook, potentially supporting a reduction in headline inflation and easing food inflation pressures. Additionally, the anticipated surplus rainfall could lead to improved production, potentially allowing for the easing of export curbs on commodities such as rice.