Following a series of drone attacks on key oil refineries by Ukraine, Russia has demonstrated swift repair efforts, reducing the idled capacity to approximately 10% from the previous 14% at the end of March, according to Reuters calculations. The attacks, which targeted major oil refineries in the world’s second-largest oil exporter, resulted in a temporary disruption and contributed to a rise in oil prices.
While Russia has condemned the drone attacks as acts of terrorism, Ukraine has justified its actions as necessary for its survival in the face of what it describes as “massive retaliatory” strikes by Russia on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Notably, there have been no further successful attacks on Russian large refineries following the incident at the Taneco plant on April 2.
Despite facing challenges in obtaining Western expertise, Russia has expedited the repair process at its refineries. This includes the restoration of primary oil refining units at the Rosneft-owned Ryazan plant, as well as repairs at the Kuibyshev and Syzran refineries. As a result, the total Russian primary oil refining capacity idled by drone attacks has been reduced to 90,500 metric tons per day (660,000 barrels per day) from the previous 123,800 tons per day (907,000 bpd).
However, the cumulative primary oil refining capacity offline due to various outages and maintenance is expected to reach 4.4 million tons in April, up from 4.1 million tons in March. The respite in Ukraine’s strikes follows criticism from the United States, where concerns over high fuel prices have become a significant focus in the lead-up to the presidential election.
In response to inquiries about discouraging Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s infrastructure, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin emphasized the potential impact on global energy markets, highlighting the delicate balance between tactical and operational targets and the broader energy landscape.