In March, China experienced a notable decline in soybean imports, with the total volume reaching the lowest level for the month in four years. Data from the General Administration of Customs revealed that soybean imports for the month amounted to 5.54 million metric tons, marking a nearly 20% decrease compared to the same period last year. Furthermore, soybean arrivals in China during January-March totaled 18.58 million tons, reflecting a 10.8% reduction from the same quarter in the previous year.
This decline is indicative of China’s relatively weak soybean demand, attributed to diminished profitability in the livestock sector affecting the need for soymeal. According to agricultural researcher Liu Jinlu from Guoyuan Futures, the high cost of imported soybeans this year has also dampened the incentive for Chinese buyers to engage in soybean imports. China typically purchases soybeans for crushing into meal for animal feed and oil for cooking.
While soybean imports are anticipated to surge in the second quarter following the completion of the harvest season in Brazil, analysts like Rosa Wang from Shanghai-based agro-consultancy JCI expect a tempered growth rate due to weak feed demand and consumer consumption in China. Despite recent cancellations, China’s cereal and oilseed imports are projected to remain near record highs this year, driven by lower global prices and a domestic output shortfall.
Brazil’s soybean harvest progress for the 2023/24 cycle has reached 78% of the planted area, with a record harvest in the southernmost state offsetting losses in the drought-affected central west region. This has contributed to stabilizing prices in the world’s largest producer and exporter, slowing the pace of sales.