According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), weekly imports of Mexican crude oil to the United States hit an all-time low in early April, dropping to 209,000 barrels per day (bpd). This significant decline is attributed to Mexico’s state energy company, Pemex, reducing exports in order to allocate more supply to its domestic refineries. In 2023, the average imports stood at approximately 733,000 bpd, making the recent drop even more pronounced.
Pemex’s decision to curtail crude exports follows a request to its trading unit to cancel up to 436,000 bpd of crude exports for April and at least 330,000 bpd for May, with the aim of prioritizing supplies for its own refineries, including the newly established Dos Bocas refinery. The Dos Bocas refinery, part of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s initiative to reduce costly gasoline and diesel imports, has encountered delays and exceeded its budget.
The decline in Mexican crude exports is expected to persist in the coming months, prompting U.S. refiners and traders to seek additional barrels from the domestic market. Furthermore, U.S. refiners may turn to Canada or Venezuela for similar quality crude as an alternative. To compensate for the shortage, the U.S. imported 531,000 bpd of crude oil from Saudi Arabia last week, marking the highest figure in seven months.
The reduction in Mexican exports has led to a surge in prices for heavier crude along the U.S. Gulf Coast in recent weeks. Maya prices at the U.S. Gulf Coast reached approximately $78.80 per barrel on Wednesday, reflecting an increase of over $1 from the previous session and approximately $9 higher than the average price last year. Additionally, shippers are considering repositioning tankers to serve other markets as Maya exports continue to decline.